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Key Water Blog

2019/20 Season Outlook – February 15th 2019

15th February

 

New South Wales

 

Murrumbidgee

The Preliminary Outlook for 2019-20 is conservatively based on assumed extreme dry (99th percentile) inflow conditions for the remainder of this water year and all 2019-20. The forecast information is not guaranteed and should be used at ones own risk.

Full 100% allocation can be expected for towns, domestic and stock access licences and sub-category high security licences. Private carry over will be fully deliverable. High security licences will receive an initial allocation of 95%. For July 1 some reduced allocations to conveyance entitlements is possible. There will be no commencing general security allocation under extreme dry inflow conditions. Water in Environmental Water Allowances (EWA) accounts will be available and accrue in accordance with the rules of the water sharing plan.

To read the full outlook click here 

 

NSW Murray & Lower Darling

The Preliminary Outlook for 2019-20 is conservatively based on the assumed very dry (90th percentile) inflow scenario for the remainder of the water year, and extreme dry (99th percentile) conditions for all of 2019-20. The forecast information is not guaranteed and should be used at one’s own risk.

Lower Darling

The Menindee Lake System is critically low and is in Stage 4 drought. Allocations will be made to ensure own, domestic, stock & high security access licences, have enough account balance to ensure continued use of water while access to surface water supplies remain,  however a full allocation on July 1 is not assured. General Security will open with no allocation unless there is significant recovery in the Menindee system. Current restrictions on water usage will remain in place and the Wentworth to Broken Hill pipeline is expected to be commissioned and fully supplying Broken Hill’s water supply needs by the start of the next water year therefore allocations for the licence will be governed by NSW Murray town water supply allocation

NSW Murray

Full 100% allocation can be expected for towns, domestic & stock access licences and sub-category high security entitlements. It is intended that at this stage that high security (97%) and carry over commitments will be met on July 1 and that general security allocations will be low or zero. An initial shortfall of water may impact conveyance entitlements. In the unlikely event that critically low inflows are experienced into winter, there will be a significant shortfall challenge. Conditions are being closely monitored and more detail on potential manegement decisions about high security allocation shortfall and restricted access to carryover will be provided in outlook updates, if that scenario appears to firm. Water will be set aside for environmental requirements in accordance with the rules of the NSW Murray and Lower Darling regulated rivers water sharing plan. Payback of the borrowed Barmah Millewa EWA volume will need to commence when general security allocations reach 30% of entitlement.

To read the full outlook click here 

 

Victoria 

The Resource Manager for northern Victorian water systems today released the first outlook for 2019/20 seasonal determinations.

Northern Victorian Resource Manager Mark Bailey said seasonal determinations against high-reliability water shares (HRWS) at the start of the 2019/20 water year will depend heavily on flows received into the major storages during autumn and early winter.

“There are lower reserves in the storages compared to the reserves at this time in the last two water years. Unless we see an increase in the storage volumes, opening seasonal determinations are likely to be low,” Dr Bailey said.

“A repeat of the flows into the major storages observed in 2018/19 would result in the Goulburn system reaching about 65 per cent HRWS in February 2020 and the Murray system would be about 60 per cent.

“Early season announcements in the Broken and Bullarook systems will be influenced by the volume carried over and catchment conditions. Both systems are likely to start at 0 per cent HRWS.”

“Carryover will be deliverable under all scenarios in the Murray, Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems. At this stage of the year there is currently insufficient water to operate the Broken and Bullarook systems as usual for the entire 2019/20 season, but carryover will be deliverable early in the season and will be extended as resource improvements occur.

“Based on assumed use to the end of 2018/19, allocation carried over into 2019/20 and climate-adjusted flow records, the risk of spill in the Goulburn system during 2019/20 is currently estimated to be less than 10 per cent. The risk in the Murray system is about 35 per cent. The Campaspe system currently has a 40 per cent risk.

“Customers may wish to factor this into their plans for the remaining months of 2018/19.”

Further detail on outlook for the 2019/20 season

The outlooks for 2019/20 seasonal determinations are based on historical flow records that have been adjusted to match climate conditions observed since 1975. The outlook scenarios presented are:

Wet: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100
Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100
Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100
Extreme Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100

The following tables summarise the estimated high-reliability water share seasonal determinations through the season for each scenario in the Murray, Goulburn, Loddon, Campaspe, Broken and Bullarook systems.

Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
Inflow Conditions1 July 201915 August 201915 October 201917 February 2020
Wet 40%74%100%100%
Average 20% 42%79%100%
Dry 0% 23%41%58%
Extreme Dry 0% 8%9%20%

 

Goulburn System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
Inflow Conditions1 July 201915 August 201915 October 201917 February 2020
Wet43%87%100%100%
Average 18%44%84%100%
Dry 6% 21%39%47%
Extreme Dry 2%7%14%18%

 

Campaspe System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
Inflow Conditions1 July 201915 August 201915 October 201917 February 2020
Wet100%100%100%100%
Average 23% 70%100%1005
Dry 16% 21%31%32%
Extreme Dry 16% 16%16%16%

 

Loddon System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
Inflow Conditions1 July 201915 August 201915 October 201917 February 2020
Wet 43% 87%100%100%
Average 12% 44%84%100%
Dry 0% 3%31%37%
Extreme Dry 0% 0%0%0%

 

Broken System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
Inflow Conditions1 July 201915 August 201915 October 201917 February 2020
Wet33%76%100%100%
Average 0% 6%100%100%
Dry 0% 0%0%7%
Extreme Dry 0% 0%0%0%

 

Bullarook System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
Inflow Conditions1 July 201915 August 201915 October 201917 February 2020
Wet 12%100%100%100%
Average 0% 100%100%100%
Dry 0% 0%7%39%
Extreme Dry 0% 0%0%0%

 

Additional outlook scenarios for each system are available from the Northern Victorian Resource Manager website (www.nvrm.net.au/outlooks).

Outlooks for low-reliability water shares (LRWS) will be prepared during the 2019/20 season if seasonal determination are 100% HRWS and there is the possibility of LRWS being allocated.

Upcoming Resource Manager Announcements
  • The next 2018/19 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Friday March 1, 2019.
  • The 2019/20 seasonal determination outlooks will be updated on Wednesday May 15, 2019.
  • The first 2019/20 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Monday July 1, 2019 and will include an assessment of the probability of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems and an updated outlook.

To see the full statement click here 

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