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Key Water Blog

15th Feb 2018- Allocation announcements & Victoria Water Determinations for 2018/2019 season

Murrumbidgee General Security allocation has increased 1% mostly due to delivery losses being lower than expected over summer.

Read the full allocation announcement here 

 

The NSW Murray has received no further allocation, remaining on 49%.

Read the full allocation announcement here

 

Victoria Seasonal Determinations for 2017/2018 season

The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today updated the 2017/18 seasonal determinations.

The low-reliability water shares (LRWS) seasonal determination in the Campaspe system increases from 52 per cent to 55 per cent. The Campaspe system also has 100 per cent high-reliability water shares (HRWS).

The seasonal determinations in the Murray, Goulburn and Loddon systems remain unchanged at 100 per cent HRWS. The Broken and Bullarook systems remain at 100 per cent HRWS and 100 per cent LRWS.

 

Northern Victorian Resource Manager releases 2018/19 Seasonal Determination Outlook

The Resource Manager for northern Victorian water systems today released the first outlook for 2018/19 seasonal determinations.

Northern Victorian Resource Manager Mark Bailey said the Goulburn, and Loddon systems are expected to start the 2018/19 water year with seasonal determinations of about 20 per cent of high‑reliability water shares (HRWS) or better.

The Murray system is expected to start with a seasonal determination of at least 35 per cent HRWS.

“The Campaspe system is expected to receive 100 per cent HRWS on the first 2018/19 announcement on July 1, 2018,” Dr Bailey said.

“Early season announcements in the Broken and Bullarook systems will be influenced by the volume carried over and catchment conditions.

“Carryover will be deliverable in systems under all scenarios.

“All of the northern Victorian systems are expected to have seasonal determinations of 100% HRWS by mid October 2018 under average inflow conditions.

“The 2018/19 outlooks reflect the establishment of operating reserves for the year to date. Northern Victorian storages have received less inflow compared to this time last year and the outlooks for high‑reliability water shares for the Murray, Broken, Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems are lower.

“Flows into the major storages so far in 2017/18 have tracked between the average and dry scenarios. During 2016/17 flows were between the wet and average scenarios.

“Based on assumed use to the end of 2017/18 and the historical flow record, it is estimated that the probability of spill during 2018/19 in the Goulburn system could be about 30 per cent and about 60 per cent in the Murray system. The probability of spill in the Campaspe system is expected to be about 50 per cent at the start of 2018/19.

“Customers may wish to factor this into their plans for the remaining months of 2017/18.”

The Resource Manager uses historical flow records to assess the seasonal determinations for a range of inflows to the major storages. The scenarios are:

Wet: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100

Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100

Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100

Extreme Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100

The following tables summarise possible high-reliability water share seasonal determinations through the season in the Murray, Goulburn, Loddon, Broken and Bullarook systems.

Murray System outlook for seasonal determination of high-reliability water shares

Inflow conditions2 July 201815 August 201815 October 201815 February 2019
Wet 81%100%100%100%
Average59%76%100% 100%
Dry41%50%77% 100%
Extreme Dry37%38%40% 45%

Goulburn and Loddon System outlook for seasonal determination of high-reliability water shares 

Inflow conditions2 July 201815 August 201815 October 201815 February 2019
Wet 77%100%100%100%
Average 37%71%100% 100%
Dry 27%39%60% 84%
Extreme Dry 22%28%35% 38%

Broken System outlook for season determination of high-reliability water shares

Inflow conditions2 July 201815 August 201815 October 201815 February 2019
Wet 40%44%100%100%
Average 0%44%100% 100%
Dry 0%0%22% 100%
Extreme Dry 0%0%0% 0%

Bullarook System outlook for seasonal determination of high-reliability water shares

Inflow conditions2 July 201815 August 201815 October 201815 February 2019
Wet 33%100%100%100%
Average 0%100%100% 100%
Dry 0%0%19% 34%
Extreme Dry 0%0%0% 0%

Additional outlook scenarios for each system are available from the Northern Victorian Resource Manager website at www.nvrm.net.au/outlooks.

Outlooks for low-reliability water shares (LRWS) will be prepared during the 2018/19 season if seasonal determination are 100% HRWS and there is the possibility of LRWS being allocated.

 

 

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